Economic sanctions are tricky business as anyone at the Council on Foreign Relations would agree. If you read Henry Kissinger’s essays you will see he believes economic sanctions are one lever but alone seldom bring the desired results. Okay so, are the economic sanctions working in Iran, well, yes and no, and it looks as if the US, EU, UN may agree to further sanctions including the Iranian Central Bank. After all, Iran is trading with Russia, China, India, Syria, Venezuela, and they are energy rich, as in oil.
Not long ago, an acquaintance asked me if our economic sanctions are working there and will they bring about change. The answer is yes, they do have an effect, but in the long-term is it good for the US, after all the US has no beef with the people of Iran, rather its leadership. But if the people are suffering economically, then it does create western animosity and it drives a wedge in any hopeful positive negotiations. Of course, about now anything positive is unlikely as Iran continues to build its nuclear arsenal up, and manufacture long-range missiles, not to mention all the war toys that China and Russia are selling it.
In the future, what will become of the resources of the Middle East, will China and India buy that oil and will the OPEC trade without the dollar? Well, the Euro could be pared with the dollar by mid-2012 due to their economic crisis, so that’s probably not going to happen by OPEC may come up with a calculation to trade for Yuan and then use that to buy products and services from China. Indeed, China has all sorts of things and high-tech that the US has, because that’s where they stole it from through industrial espionage.
My acquaintance also wonders if “Iran will continue to attempt to destabilize the region?” Yes, but it doesn’t have to be that way, Iran has signed a pipeline deal with Iraq, how about one with Afghanistan and grant them an easement to the Arabian Sea, perhaps share a sea-port and militarily protect it? I bet we could get that deal done, and a treaty for a pipeline from Iran through Afghanistan or Pakistan or both to India.
That helps India with their fuel supplies, as they will be vying for oil just as China is and as they grow too. Iraq does not have to be at a tug of war with Saudi Arabia and the Sunni and Shia need to bury the hatchet, this is a good time in human history to do this. Of course, before any of that were to happen Iran must agree to stop making nuclear weapons, otherwise increased sanctions and war are coming fast. And the outcome of such a war is very predictable; defeat of Iran’s Navy, Army, Air Force, and Qod Forces, removal of nuclear weapons development, and long-term sanctions. It won’t be pretty, but it will be pretty decisive.
Lance Winslow has launched a new provocative series of eBooks on Future Concepts. Lance Winslow is a retired Founder of a Nationwide Franchise Chain, and now runs the Online Think Tank; http://www.worldthinktank.net
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